[Weekly Stock Picks] Sumitomo Metal Mining Raises Profit Outlook 23% on Gold and Copper Rally, Nvidia Falls for a 7th Straight Session Ahead of Earnings – One Stock Each From Japan and the U.S.

Hey everyone, Hirokichi here.

This week’s Weekly Stock Picks features one stock from Japan and one from the U.S.: Sumitomo Metal Mining (5713) and Nvidia (NVDA). One just posted an earnings beat and an upward guidance revision that’s sending its stock higher, while the other is heading into a make-or-break earnings report. Let’s dig into what’s happening with each, from an investor’s point of view.

What kind of company is Sumitomo Metal Mining (5713)?

Sumitomo Metal Mining is a major non-ferrous metals company within the Sumitomo Group. Alongside its resource development and smelting business covering copper, gold, and nickel, it also runs a materials business that makes cathode materials for EV lithium-ion batteries. The company holds mining interests around the world, and its earnings are highly sensitive to global copper and gold prices — making it a textbook example of a commodity-linked stock.

Worth noting: on August 24, major semiconductor names sold off sharply in Tokyo, dragging the Nikkei 225 down 488 points from the previous week’s close. The TOPIX, on the other hand, stayed in positive territory, creating a “Nikkei down, TOPIX up” divergence. In that environment, money tended to flow toward resource and non-ferrous metal names like Sumitomo Metal Mining.

Gold and copper strength drove a big Q1 beat, and full-year guidance was raised

On August 10, Sumitomo Metal Mining reported results for the first quarter (April-June 2026) of its fiscal year ending March 2027. Revenue came in at 540.1 billion yen (up 42.3% year-on-year), pre-tax profit was 118.0 billion yen, and net profit was 87.9 billion yen — 3.2 times the year-earlier figure (sources: Sumitomo Metal Mining earnings report, Nikkei).

At the same time, the company raised its full-year guidance, lifting its pre-tax profit forecast from 229.0 billion yen to 324.0 billion yen, a 95.0 billion yen increase. According to Kabutan, the full-year net profit outlook flipped from a decline to a 23% increase. The driver behind all of this: rising gold and copper prices combined with a weaker yen, both of which boosted profits in the resource segment.

For context, the prior fiscal year (ended March 2026) also saw net profit balloon to 8.5 times the year before on the back of gold and copper strength, with the annual dividend raised from 131 yen to 183 yen. This quarter shows that momentum is continuing.

The stock is up more than 50% in a month — here’s the chart

Let’s look at how the share price has moved.

The stock traded around 7,460 yen in late July. After the August 10 earnings release, it jumped as much as 11.85% in a single day to 10,065 yen. The rally continued from there, and on August 24 the stock closed at 11,475 yen, up 715 yen (+6.64%) on the day. That’s a gain of more than 50% in roughly a month. For reference, the 52-week high is 13,300 yen, set on March 2, and the 52-week low is 6,552 yen, set on January 5 — so the current price sits a bit above the midpoint of that range.

What stands out is that the pace of the rally clearly accelerated right around the earnings release, suggesting the market is rewarding the upward guidance revision with sustained buying.

An investor’s take

On the positive side, this rally is backed by actual earnings, not just speculation — a rarity for resource stocks, which are often bid up on themes alone. The dividend has also tended to rise alongside earnings, which is a plus for income-focused investors.

On the other hand, the company’s heavy dependence on gold and copper prices is a real risk. If those commodity prices reverse, both earnings and the stock price could swing just as sharply in the other direction. Even though the stock is still below its 52-week high, it has already climbed more than 50% in a short period, so it’s worth being cautious about chasing the rally at these levels.

Nvidia (NVDA) has fallen for 7 straight sessions heading into earnings

Now for the U.S. pick. This week we’re looking at Nvidia (NVDA), the company that designs AI-focused GPUs (graphics processing units). Nvidia holds a near-monopoly share of the data center GPU market and is widely seen as the bellwether stock of the generative AI boom. As of August 2026, its market capitalization stands at roughly $5 trillion, ahead of both Apple and Microsoft — making it, quite literally, the face of the AI trade.

Nvidia reports second-quarter fiscal 2027 earnings on August 26 (U.S. time; early morning of August 27 in Japan). It’s arguably the single biggest event on the market calendar this week.

What the market expects, and how the stock has traded

The stock closed at $208.48 on August 24, down $6.24 (-2.91%) on the day — its seventh consecutive daily decline. Over those seven sessions, the stock has fallen a cumulative 7.5%, marking its longest losing streak in four years (sources: Forbes JAPAN, StockTwits). The 52-week high is $236.54, set on May 14, putting the current price about 12% below that peak.

Analysts are expecting revenue of roughly $92 billion and adjusted EPS of $2.09. The company’s own guidance calls for revenue of $91 billion (plus or minus 2%), with gross margin guided at 74.9% on a GAAP basis and 75.0% on a non-GAAP basis — both strong numbers. Wall Street analysts at firms like Oppenheimer and RBC Capital have stuck with their “buy” ratings, staying bullish. Interestingly, though, retail investor sentiment has cooled from “positive” to “neutral” over the past week.

An investor’s take

On the plus side, the strength of AI data center demand is clearly reflected in the company’s own guidance. Revenue is expected to nearly double year-on-year, which backs up the idea that the AI investment boom is still very much intact. The fact that Nvidia can keep growing at this rate even with a market cap north of $5 trillion is genuinely impressive.

The flip side is that, as the pre-earnings pullback suggests, expectations are already priced in at a high level. In recent quarters, Nvidia’s pattern has been that even a strong beat gets sold off if it doesn’t clear the (very high) bar investors have set. The stock tends to swing hard right after earnings, so it’s best not to get too caught up in the short-term price action either way.

What to watch next

To wrap up, here are a few things worth keeping an eye on going forward.

(1) For Sumitomo Metal Mining, gold and copper prices remain the biggest variable. If prices stay elevated, there’s room for further upside in both earnings and the stock; if they pull back, the stock could move just as sharply in the other direction.

(2) For Nvidia, the August 26 earnings report itself is the main event. Beyond revenue and margins, the Q3 guidance the company provides will likely be the key driver of where the stock goes next.

(3) Both stocks share something in common: a good chunk of their good news is already priced in. Rather than chasing either one impulsively, it’s worth checking the actual earnings details and the broader market mood before making any decisions.

Let’s keep at it, slow and steady. See you next time!

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* This article is for informational purposes only and does not recommend any specific investment. Please make investment decisions at your own responsibility.

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