Hey everyone, Hirokichi here. On July 30, the Nikkei 225 rebounded for the first time in three days, closing 433.24 yen higher at 61,867.43 yen. But TOPIX (the Tokyo Stock Price Index) fell, so the two indexes moved in opposite directions. Tonight brings the US GDP first estimate for April-June, the PCE price index, and earnings from Apple and Amazon. Let me walk through all of it.
- Japanese Stocks Today: Nikkei Up 433 Yen at 61,867, First Gain in Three Days
- TOPIX Down 0.54%, 63.7% of Stocks Fell: A Day When the Index Alone Misleads You
- The Yen at Around 163.60 per Dollar as Higher Oil Keeps Dollar Buying Alive
- Tonight’s US Outlook: GDP and PCE at 21:30 Japan Time, Apple and Amazon Earnings After the Close
- Summary: Three Points From Today
Japanese Stocks Today: Nikkei Up 433 Yen at 61,867, First Gain in Three Days
The Nikkei 225 closed at 61,867.43 yen, up 433.24 yen (about 0.7%), its first advance in three sessions (Source: Kabutan, “Nikkei rebounds, buying dominant but upside heavy / market overview”).
That said, it was not a straight climb. Here is how the day unfolded.
- Open: 61,258.34 yen (down 175.85 yen), starting lower again
- Midday close: 62,218.41 yen (up 784.22 yen, or 1.28%), a sharp recovery
- Final close: 61,867.43 yen (up 433.24 yen), giving back part of the gain
US stocks fell sharply on July 29, so selling came first. But after days of steep declines, investors started to see value, and buybacks concentrated in semiconductor names, which carry a lot of weight in the index. Relief that the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee, the meeting that sets US monetary policy) was out of the way also helped, and the Nikkei moved into positive territory early.
Even so, the afternoon session was heavy, and the index slowly gave back gains. I think this was a rebound driven by short covering rather than a real change in the mood. Trading value on the Tokyo Stock Exchange Prime Market came to 12.6645 trillion yen on volume of 3,004.62 million shares, so the tug of war between buyers and sellers is far from over.
TOPIX Down 0.54%, 63.7% of Stocks Fell: A Day When the Index Alone Misleads You
This is the part I most want to share today. While the Nikkei rose 433 yen, TOPIX (the Tokyo Stock Price Index, which reflects the whole market rather than a selected group) fell 21.53 points, or 0.54%, to 3,952.50 (Source: Yahoo! Finance Japan, TOPIX).
On the Prime Market, 34.2% of issues rose and 63.7% fell. In other words, nearly two thirds of the market was down, yet the Nikkei still finished higher.
The reason is simple: the Nikkei is heavily swayed by high-priced stocks. At the midday close, Advantest alone was lifting the index by 698.73 yen (Source: Kabutan, “Nikkei midday close, July 30”). The headline may say “Nikkei rebounds,” but plenty of investors watched their own holdings fall today.
Sector Moves
- Higher: electric appliances, other products, nonferrous metals
- Lower: securities and commodity futures, banks, other financing business
Gainers included Advantest, Tokyo Electron, Kioxia Holdings, TDK, Ibiden, Fanuc, Murata Manufacturing, Shin-Etsu Chemical and Disco, so semiconductors and electronic components led the way. On the other side, Fast Retailing, Lasertec, Konami Group, Fujikura, SoftBank Group, KDDI, Recruit Holdings and Toyota all declined.
What caught my eye was the selling in banks and brokerages. Those sectors have been bought recently on the back of rising interest rates, so this pullback may show that the market cannot decide where US rates go from here.
The Yen at Around 163.60 per Dollar as Higher Oil Keeps Dollar Buying Alive
The dollar is trading at around 163.60 yen (Source: Yahoo! Finance Japan, USD/JPY, as of 16:00 on July 30). It opened at 163.397 yen today, and the dollar was bought steadily as oil prices rose.
The 163 yen level is the weakest yen in about 39 and a half years. That is a tailwind for exporters, but it also pushes up import prices and, in turn, household costs. I covered what this weak yen means for Japanese stocks in [Explainer] Yen Hits 163 to the Dollar, Weakest in 39 Years – What It Means for Japanese Stocks, so please take a look if you want the full picture.
Tonight’s US Outlook: GDP and PCE at 21:30 Japan Time, Apple and Amazon Earnings After the Close
First, a quick recap of the US session on July 29 (Source: Kabutan, “US markets fall sharply on July 29”).
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: 51,594.14 (down 1,153.18 points)
- Nasdaq Composite: 24,442.94 (down 433.97 points, or 1.74%)
There were three main reasons for the drop.
- President Trump warned of fierce retaliatory strikes, and speculation about renewed military action against Iran pushed oil prices higher
- Persistent worry that massive AI (artificial intelligence) investment is turning into a credit risk kept selling pressure on semiconductor names
- The FOMC left rates unchanged as expected, but after Chair Warsh’s press conference, concern grew that delayed rate hikes could accelerate inflation, and selling picked up into the close
What to Watch Tonight
- 21:30 Japan time: the April-June GDP (Gross Domestic Product) first estimate and the June PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) price index. The PCE price index is the inflation gauge the Fed (Federal Reserve) watches most closely, so a hot number tends to mean higher yields and lower stocks
- After the US close: Apple and Amazon earnings. Consensus earnings per share are 1.88 dollars for Apple and 2.26 dollars for Amazon (Source: Investing.com)
- Oil prices and the Middle East. Until that settles down, inflation worries will keep smoldering
US stock futures (contracts to buy or sell an index at a future price, a useful read on overnight sentiment) were modestly higher as of 16:17 Japan time, with US 30 up 0.24%, US 500 up 0.32% and US Tech 100 up 0.42% (Source: Investing.com index futures). That is a calm start given last night’s slide.
For me, tonight comes down to two things: the PCE number, and how Apple and Amazon explain their AI spending. Even if the data lands in line, if Big Tech says it will spend even more on AI, the same doubt about whether that investment pays off could hit stocks again. On the oil side, I put the background together in [Explainer] Trump Declares US “Guardian of the Strait of Hormuz” – What It Means for Japan: Oil Prices and Inflation Risks.
Summary: Three Points From Today
- The Nikkei rose 433.24 yen to 61,867.43 yen, its first gain in three days, but it faded in the afternoon and the move looks driven by short covering
- TOPIX fell 0.54% and 63.7% of issues declined, a reminder that a day when the Nikkei rises is not always a day when your own stocks rise
- Tonight brings US GDP and PCE at 21:30 Japan time, plus Apple and Amazon earnings after the close, with the Middle East and oil still in focus
When the index and the reality drift apart like this, I think quietly sticking to regular contributions is easier than chasing the daily swings.
Here is my previous market recap → [Market Recap] Nikkei Rebounds 320 Yen to 64,931 as Mideast Tensions Ease, Chips Stay Under Pressure – Tonight Kicks Off FOMC and Big Tech Earnings Week [2026/7/28]
Japanese version is here → 日本語版はこちら
* This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Please invest at your own responsibility.
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