[Nikkei Recap] Sep 29, 2026: Nikkei 225 Falls 396 Points to 65,481 as Ex-Dividend Effect and Rising U.S. Yields Weigh

Hey everyone, Hirokichi here. It was Tuesday, the last full trading week of September. Here’s the headline number: the Nikkei 225 closed at 65,481.27 yen, down 396.35 points (-0.60%) from the previous day. The TOPIX fell even harder in percentage terms, down 70.87 points to 4,041.13 (-1.72%). In this post I’ll walk through what happened, why it happened, and what it means for your own investing, in plain language.

Today’s index snapshot

What stands out here is that TOPIX fell by a wider percentage than the Nikkei 225. As I’ll explain below, that’s likely because the “ex-dividend” effect that hit the market today weighs more broadly on TOPIX, which covers far more constituent stocks (figures compiled from published index data; the Growth 250 index wasn’t yet reflected by data providers at the time of writing, so I’m leaving it pending).

The previous session (Sep 28) closed at 65,877.62, so this marks a second straight day of declines. Looking back over the last five trading days, the index climbed to 66,364.20 on Sep 25 before pulling back for two consecutive sessions on the 28th and 29th.

The chart above lines up the Nikkei’s closing prices for the last five sessions. You can see it peaked on Sep 25 and has been giving back some of that gain over the past two days — this looks more like a short-term cooling-off period than a sharp sell-off.

Why did it move? The factors behind today’s drop

Three main factors combined to pull the market down today.

(1) A pullback on Wall Street: On Sep 28 in New York, all three major indexes fell together — the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 347.11 points (-0.67%) to 51,481.51, the S&P 500 fell 59.72 points (-0.78%) to 7,683.69, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 248.34 points (-0.92%) to 26,820.38 (figures per Zaikei Shimbun’s reporting). Oil prices rose on concerns over Iran and the possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which fed rate-hike expectations and pushed long-term interest rates higher. Higher rates tend to hit stocks whose future profits get discounted more heavily — especially tech and semiconductor names — which is why the Nasdaq fell the most of the three.

(2) The end-of-September ex-dividend effect: Many Japanese companies close their fiscal half-year books in September, and today was the ex-dividend date for shares eligible for dividends and shareholder perks with a record date of September 30. Once the right to receive that dividend is gone, the stock price mechanically adjusts downward — it’s a structural effect on the whole Nikkei 225. Some Japanese financial media estimated this ex-dividend effect alone shaved roughly 385 points off the Nikkei 225 today (per a headline from Nikkan Gendai Digital), which would account for a large chunk of today’s 396-point decline. In other words, a good part of today’s drop reflects the calendar, not a sudden deterioration in corporate fundamentals.

(3) Rising oil prices: Tied to factor (1) above, growing concern over Middle East tensions pushed oil prices higher, adding cost pressure for resource-intensive industries.

Stocks in the spotlight today, and why

Beyond the index-level story, a few individual stocks stood out. Since “ex-dividend” was one of today’s themes, stocks tied to that theme moved the most.

What this table shows is a clear split between stocks that rose on good news and stocks that fell for a structural, calendar-driven reason (ex-dividend). (Exact closing prices and percentage moves for these individual names weren’t yet reflected by data providers at the time of writing, so I’ve marked them pending — the direction and the reasons behind each move are confirmed through company news coverage.)

Let’s start with Nexon (3659). On top of its regular annual dividend of 60 yen, the company declared a large special dividend of 415 yen per share — roughly $2 billion (about 310 billion yen) in total — payable to shareholders of record as of September 30. Today was the ex-dividend date, and investors who no longer stood to receive that payout sold the stock, extending its losing streak to four days. Other gaming names like Colopl also softened as they hit similar September ex-dividend or shareholder-benefit dates. The special dividend itself is genuinely good news for shareholders, but if you don’t understand that ex-dividend dates mechanically pull the share price down, it’s easy to mistake this for bad news.

On the flip side, Happinet (7552) rallied sharply. The wholesaler of toys and video/media content significantly raised its earnings guidance for the six months through September, and reports suggest its fiscal second quarter (July–September) alone delivered a record profit. I think this is a good example of how a stock with a clear, company-specific catalyst — like an earnings upgrade — can rally even while the broader market is soft because of ex-dividend pressure.

Heavyweight, high-priced names like Nippon Steel (5401) and Toyota Motor (7203), which carry outsized influence on the index, also opened lower and stayed weak. These moves don’t appear to be driven by company-specific bad news, but rather reflect the broader market backdrop — the ex-dividend effect, rising U.S. long-term rates, and higher oil prices. Since the Nikkei 225 is a price-weighted index, moves in high-priced stocks have a disproportionately large effect on the overall index level.

What this means for individual investors

Here’s how I’m thinking about today’s pullback.

First, since a large part of today’s decline traces back to the structural “ex-dividend” effect, I don’t think buy-and-hold, dollar-cost-averaging investors need to worry too much. This is a seasonal effect that shows up around this time every year — it doesn’t reflect a sudden change in companies’ underlying earning power. In fact, looking at the last five trading days, the index was at 66,364 as recently as Sep 25, so today’s level still looks like it’s within that recent range.

That said, rising U.S. long-term interest rates and the related pullback in semiconductor and tech names are worth keeping an eye on as an ongoing market theme, since U.S. rate moves tend to spill over into Japanese equities as well.

For shorter-term traders, today drew a clear line between stocks like Nexon that fell for calendar reasons and stocks like Happinet that rallied on genuinely good news. It’s a good reminder that paying attention to individual company news matters just as much as reading the overall market mood.

What to watch going forward

(1) U.S. long-term rates and inflation data: whether the rise in long-term yields cools off will likely determine how quickly tech and semiconductor names can recover. (2) Price action once the ex-dividend drag fades: it’ll be worth watching whether the index bounces back on its own once that mechanical effect washes out, or whether it instead falls further in line with U.S. weakness. (3) Earnings-season momentum: I’ll be watching whether stocks with upgraded guidance, like Happinet today, continue to get rewarded individually as more companies report.

Let’s keep at it, slow and steady. See you tomorrow!

You can find yesterday’s recap here: [Nikkei Recap] Sep 28, 2026: Nikkei 225 Falls 486 Points to 65,877 as Chip Stocks Slide and Profit-Taking Hits.

Japanese version (日本語版) is here → 日本語版はこちら

* This article is for informational purposes only and does not recommend any specific investment. Please make investment decisions at your own responsibility.

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