Hi, this is Hirokichi.
We’re already in the second half of 2026, but the star of the market is still the same: AI. This time, I’ve put together a rundown of the latest moves among the AI companies leading the US market, using numbers from the first half of 2026.
■ The US market held firm, led by the semiconductor sector
In the first half of 2026, the S&P 500 rose about 9.6%, and the Nasdaq gained around 13% — a solid six months for US stocks overall. The standout was the semiconductor sector, which surged more than 80% in just the first half, fully riding the wave of AI infrastructure investment.
On the other hand, the mega-cap tech names that had been driving the market (the so-called “Magnificent Seven”) saw moments of weakness too — losing a combined $2.3 trillion-plus in market cap in June alone. It feels like we’ve moved past the phase where “anything AI-related just goes up.”
■ Nvidia: still the king, even at a $4.7 trillion market cap
When it comes to the AI rally, Nvidia (NVDA) remains the main character. Its market cap briefly hit $5.4 trillion before pulling back to around $4.7 trillion, but it still holds the title of the world’s most valuable company.
2025 revenue came in at $215.9 billion, up 65% year over year. Growing more than 60% at that scale is honestly on another level. Nvidia’s share of the AI training chip market is estimated at 80-90%, so its position as market leader looks safe for now.
■ Microsoft: shares pulled back, but AI business hits a $37 billion annual run rate
Microsoft (MSFT) had a rough stretch too, falling about 17% in June. But under the hood, its AI business run rate reached $37 billion a year, up 123% year over year. Its remaining performance obligations (RPO) — future revenue already under contract — nearly doubled to $627 billion.
With the gap between share price and business performance widening, this is one I’m personally keeping an eye on as a “strong results, but the stock keeps getting sold off” type of case.
■ OpenAI: $852 billion valuation, IPO pushed to 2027
Even though it’s not publicly traded, OpenAI’s presence looms large. Early in 2026 it raised around $122 billion, pushing its valuation to $852 billion. Meanwhile, its IPO has been pushed back to 2027. Cash burn for 2026 is estimated at around $27 billion, so the balance between earning power and spending is something to watch going forward.
■ A mixed bag for AI stocks: Palantir down 29% year-to-date
Not every AI-related stock is doing well. Data analytics company Palantir (PLTR) saw revenue jump 85% year over year, yet its stock is down about 29% year-to-date. Broadcom (AVGO) also grew AI-related revenue by 106%, but its shares are up only around 7% year-to-date.
“Great results, falling stock price.” It looks like a phase where overly high expectations are getting reset for some names.
■ Three things to watch in the second half
① Where the AI bubble debate goes: On June 23rd, a sharp drop in Samsung and other Korean tech names triggered a 2.2% pullback in the Nasdaq. Doubts about whether “AI investment will actually pay off” look set to continue into the second half.
② Big tech earnings: Keep an eye on the balance between capital spending from Microsoft and Alphabet and the pace of their AI revenue growth.
③ OpenAI’s IPO progress: If momentum builds toward a 2027 listing, it could shape sentiment across AI-related stocks as a whole.
■ Wrap-up: AI stocks are entering an “era of selection”
Looking at US AI companies in the first half of 2026, it feels like we’ve moved from a phase where “everything goes up” to one where “only the chosen few go up.” While the indexes are climbing steadily, some individual names like Palantir have dropped sharply.
For my part, I want to keep avoiding panic buying or selling in moments like this, and stick to steadily building positions centered on index funds and US ETFs.
As always, no need to rush — just keep at it steadily. See you next time!
*This article is for informational purposes only and does not recommend any specific investment action. Please make investment decisions at your own responsibility.
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