[U.S. Market Recap] Oct 2: Nasdaq Jumps 1.19% as a Weak Jobs Report Cools Rate-Hike Fears, Nvidia Hits a Record High

Hey everyone, Hirokichi here. Since today is Monday, instead of my usual “yesterday’s session” recap, I’m covering Friday, October 2, along with whatever happened over the weekend. Here’s the headline: all three major indexes closed higher, with the Nasdaq Composite leading the way at +1.19%. The trigger was a September jobs report that came in well below expectations — a weak economic number that, somewhat ironically, pushed stocks higher.

All Three Indexes Climbed — Nasdaq Led With a 1.19% Gain

Let’s start with the index numbers.

What stands out here is that tech-heavy Nasdaq led the pack, and small-cap-focused Russell 2000 also gained close to 1%, showing that buying wasn’t limited to mega-cap tech names (sources: Yahoo Finance, TheStreet).

A few other markets worth noting: the VIX (a measure of expected S&P 500 volatility, often called the “fear index”) fell to 15.31, down 6.59% from the prior day, signaling calmer nerves. The 10-year Treasury yield (the yield on U.S. government bonds maturing in 10 years) ticked up slightly to 5.28% (+0.04). WTI crude oil fell to $91.11 a barrel (-1.90%), gold dropped to $4,162.30 an ounce (-0.95%), while Bitcoin edged up to $85,378.64 (+0.64%) (source: Yahoo Finance).

What Drove the Rally: A Surprisingly Weak Jobs Report

The day’s biggest catalyst was the September jobs report released that morning. Nonfarm payrolls rose by just 29,000, far short of the consensus estimate in the high-80,000s. The unemployment rate also ticked up, from 4.1% to 4.2% (sources: Yahoo Finance’s “Stock Market Today,” TheStreet).

Here’s my take: normally, weak hiring data raises fears of an economic slowdown and would be bad for stocks. But this time it worked the other way — investors saw it as reducing the odds that the Fed (the Federal Reserve, the U.S. central bank) would raise interest rates further. With the current Fed funds rate (the Fed’s policy rate) sitting in a 3.75%–4% range, the probability of an October rate hike reportedly dropped to around 18% after this data came out (source: Yahoo Finance). In short, the market cared more about “less tightening ahead” than it did about “the economy looks weaker.”

Five Stocks in the Spotlight

A handful of individual stocks made outsized moves on earnings and company news. Here are five worth a closer look.

What this chart shows: Nike, Seagate, and Western Digital all fell sharply, while Tesla and Nvidia moved higher — a clear split between winners and losers among the five.

Nvidia (NVDA): A New Intraday Record

Nvidia gained more than 2%, touching a fresh intraday record of $237.87 and pushing its market cap above $5.7 trillion (source: TheStreet). Beyond the ongoing AI data-center demand story, the day’s weaker jobs data likely added a tailwind by easing interest-rate concerns. When rates fall, future profits get discounted less heavily in today’s stock price, which tends to benefit growth stocks like Nvidia the most.

Tesla (TSLA): Deliveries Beat Expectations

Tesla rose roughly 4-5%. The company’s third-quarter (July-September) global delivery figure came in at 486,532 vehicles, beating the consensus estimate of around 463,000 (source: TheStreet). In my view, beating this closely watched quarterly number is a genuinely good sign for an EV maker facing demand questions, though a few analysts have flagged the possibility that some of the strength reflects demand pulled forward — something worth watching over the next couple of quarters.

Nike (NKE): The Outlook Mattered More Than the Beat

Nike fell 4.82%. The company reported its fiscal Q1 2027 earnings after the close on October 1: revenue of $11.21 billion missed the $11.32 billion consensus, while EPS (earnings per share) of $0.48 beat the $0.43 estimate. So why did the stock fall? Nike guided for full-year revenue to decline by a “high-single-digit percentage,” and the midpoint of its EPS guidance, $1.25, came in more than 20% below the analyst consensus of $1.61. Nike also unveiled a new cost-cutting program called “Pace,” targeting $2.5 billion in cumulative savings through fiscal 2031 — but that comes with roughly $1.0 billion in pre-tax charges, mostly employee-related. Shares fell as much as nearly 7% in after-hours trading right after the report (source: StockTitan). In short, the quarter itself beat on profit, but the weak forward outlook weighed far more heavily on the stock.

Seagate (STX) and Western Digital (WDC): A Supply Squeeze at Risk

Hard disk drive (HDD) makers Seagate and Western Digital tumbled 10% (to $849.79) and 7% (to $429.45), respectively. The trigger was Toshiba’s announcement that it would double HDD production capacity at its Philippines facility, aiming for a 30% share of the AI data-center storage market (source: 247 Wall St.). Both companies have benefited from a tight HDD supply-demand balance driven by surging AI data-center demand, which gave them pricing power — Seagate was up roughly 210% year-to-date and Western Digital roughly 150%, according to the same report. Toshiba’s expansion plan threatens to loosen that tight supply, which is exactly the advantage that had fueled both stocks’ huge rallies — so the pullback looks like profit-taking on fears that pricing power could fade.

Sector and ETF Moves

I wasn’t able to verify a detailed sector-by-sector breakdown for this session, so I’ll leave specific percentages out rather than guess. That said, based on the stock moves above, tech and growth names — along with small caps (Russell 2000) — that benefit from easing rate-hike fears look like the relative winners, while HDD-related stocks were the clear laggards on the new supply concerns.

A quick word on U.S. ETFs popular with Japanese retail investors: QQQ (tracking the Nasdaq 100) likely posted a relatively large gain in line with the Nasdaq’s strength, while VOO and VTI (tracking the S&P 500 and total U.S. market) probably moved roughly in line with their respective indexes. Dividend-focused ETFs like SPYD, HDV, and VYM, which carry less exposure to the tech and growth names that led the rally, may have seen smaller gains. I couldn’t verify the exact NAV change for each ETF, so take this as a reasonable inference from the index moves rather than confirmed figures.

The Weekend and What It Means for Japanese Stocks

Since this is a Monday recap, I checked for any major economic data or notable comments from officials over the weekend that might move markets, but I didn’t find anything significant. The “fading rate-hike fears” mood that lifted stocks on Friday looks likely to carry into the new week.

With U.S. stocks closing the week higher across all three indexes, Japanese stocks could see some buying interest at Monday’s open. That said, I wasn’t able to confirm specific economic releases or notable earnings scheduled for today (Monday), so I’ll leave that out rather than speculate. I’ll follow up with a fuller picture once clearer catalysts emerge.

Let’s keep at it, slow and steady. Have a good day!

* This article is for informational purposes only and does not recommend any specific investment. Please make investment decisions at your own responsibility.

Previous day’s recap (Oct 1) here → https://hirokichiiii.com/投資のいろは/us-market-2026-10-01-en/
My U.S. dividend ETF portfolio update is here → https://hirokichiiii.com/米国etf/us-etf-202609-en/

日本語版はこちら → https://hirokichiiii.com/投資のいろは/us-market-2026-10-02/

Thanks for reading! If you enjoyed this post, a quick click on the banners below would really encourage me.