[Nikkei Recap] Sep 24, 2026: Nikkei 225 Jumps 495 Points to 65,513 as SoftBank Group Surges, TOPIX Slips

Hey everyone, Hirokichi here.

Let’s take a look at the Tokyo stock market on Thursday, September 24. The headline number: the Nikkei 225 closed at 65,513.99 yen, up 495.04 points from the previous session, marking its fourth straight day of gains. This was the first trading day after a four-day weekend around two national holidays (Respect for the Aged Day and the Autumnal Equinox), and the market opened strong rather than sluggish. But dig into the details and you’ll find the Nikkei’s gain was driven largely by a single stock, SoftBank Group, while TOPIX actually finished lower. Let’s break down why.

Today’s index moves

Here’s how the major indexes closed today.

Notice the split here: the Nikkei 225 rose solidly, but TOPIX (the Tokyo Stock Price Index, which tracks the broader Prime Market rather than just 225 names) actually declined, and the Growth 250 index also slipped, snapping a two-day winning streak (source: Nikkei, Yahoo Finance Japan). The Nikkei 225 is a price-weighted index, meaning higher-priced stocks have an outsized effect on the index’s movement. As you’ll see below, SoftBank Group’s sharp rally today is a textbook example of that effect at work.

Looking at the chart, you can see the index has been grinding steadily higher from September 18 through today, across the four-day break.

Tokyo markets were closed for three straight days (September 21, 22, and 23) around Respect for the Aged Day and the Autumnal Equinox holiday, so today was the first session back. Compared with the last close on September 18 (65,018.95 yen), buyers were clearly in control despite the long break.

What moved the market today

Three things stand out.

(1) In the US market on September 23 (the previous session), September’s PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index, a survey-based gauge of business activity) came in stronger than expected, which reinforced concerns that inflation pressure remains sticky. That pushed US long-term yields (the 10-year Treasury yield) sharply higher, and according to CME’s FedWatch tool, the market’s implied odds of a 0.25-point rate hike at October’s FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed’s policy meeting) jumped from around 50% to roughly 70%. About 70% of Dow constituents fell in broad-based selling, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 352.10 points at 51,511.59 (-0.68%) (source: OANDA Japan, Minkabu FX).

(2) In currency markets, the stronger dollar outlook pushed USD/JPY to around 158.42. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan raised its policy rate to 1.25% at its September meeting, the highest level in roughly 31 years. Markets remain split on whether the next hike comes in October or gets pushed to December, and I think that uncertainty weighed on bank stocks today (source: Nomura Wealth Style). A weaker yen would normally help exporters, but today the market seemed more focused on rate-driven worries about the global economy.

(3) Domestically, overseas investors appeared to catch up on trading that had built up over the long weekend, which added to the day’s directional moves. SoftBank Group in particular saw renewed enthusiasm around AI (artificial intelligence) investment themes tied to its UK chip-design subsidiary Arm, with short-term traders piling in and pushing the stock up more than 7% intraday at one point. I think this single stock’s outsized weight in the price-weighted Nikkei is the main reason the Nikkei and TOPIX moved in opposite directions today (source: Nikkei, Kabutan News).

Today’s notable stocks and why they moved

Let’s look at five stocks that saw big moves today, what happened, and why.

This table shows a clear pattern: AI and semiconductor-related names kept attracting buyers, while traditional large caps like autos and banks stayed under a cloud of rate and growth concerns (note: SoftBank Group and Ibiden prices reflect near-close data and may differ slightly from the final print).

Laid out this way, the gainers and decliners split cleanly into two groups, and you can see at a glance that it was a day of haves and have-nots between AI/semiconductor names and everything else.

SoftBank Group (9984): AI optimism drives a 7%+ intraday spike

SoftBank Group closed up 5.91% (having traded as much as 7%+ higher intraday). Renewed enthusiasm around AI investment tied to its subsidiary Arm, the UK chip designer, was the main driver, and with little fresh news to trade on right after the long weekend, short-term traders looking for quick moves piled in too. SoftBank is one of the highest-priced stocks on the Nikkei 225, so it’s exactly the kind of name whose single-stock move can swing the whole price-weighted index. I’d say a large chunk of today’s Nikkei gain can be traced directly back to this one stock.

Toyota Motor (7203): Weighed down by global slowdown worries

Toyota Motor fell 1.85%. Concerns about a slowing global economy, plus the ongoing cost burden of EV (electric vehicle) investment, kept pressure on the stock, and as another high-priced, heavily-weighted name, it worked against the Nikkei’s gains. USD/JPY sat around 158, a yen level that should normally help exporters’ profits, but today growth worries tied to rising US rates seemed to matter more than the currency tailwind.

MUFG (8306): Investors stay cautious on the BOJ’s next move

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group fell 1.30%. The BOJ raised its policy rate to 1.25% at its September meeting, but opinion is divided on whether the next hike lands in October or waits until December. Bank stocks typically benefit from rising rates, but with US financial stocks also under pressure from the yield spike overnight, I think that added to the wait-and-see selling here.

Ibiden (4062): Nvidia CEO comments spark a rally that fades into the close

Ibiden, a major maker of semiconductor packaging substrates, closed up 6.65%, though it had been up more than 15% at one point during the morning session before giving back much of that gain by the close. The trigger was comments from Nvidia’s CEO that were read as confirming robust demand for AI-related chips, a classic reaction for a high-beta name tied to the AI investment theme. The pullback from the morning peak looks like profit-taking after the initial spike, and Ibiden’s relatively small share count for its market value likely amplifies these swings.

Advance Create (8798): Shares tumble on a profit warning

Advance Create, a major insurance agency operator, fell 19.54%, among today’s biggest decliners. The trigger was news that the company now expects to remain in the red at the bottom line. Investors who had been hoping for a return to profit sold heavily on the disappointment, compounded by the fact that the stock had recently been bought up on optimism. Smaller-cap names like this tend to see much sharper price reactions to earnings news than large caps, and today was a clear example.

How I’m thinking about this as an individual investor

If you’re steadily dollar-cost averaging, I don’t think today’s 495-point gain is something to get excited about on its own. What stood out to me more was the fact that the Nikkei 225 and TOPIX, two of Japan’s main benchmark indexes, moved in opposite directions. When headlines say “the Nikkei rose,” it’s easy to assume the whole market had a good day, but look closer and you’ll see the gain was really about one heavily-weighted stock, SoftBank Group, while the broader TOPIX actually fell. I think it’s worth paying more attention to which sector or theme your own holdings belong to, rather than reacting to the headline index number alone. For anyone trading individual stocks short-term, the split between strong AI/semiconductor buying and caution around cyclical names like autos and banks looks like a theme that could continue for a while.

What to watch next

(1) Whether the roughly 70% odds now priced in for an October Fed rate hike keep rising or start to fade as more US economic data comes out. Long-term US rates matter for both currency markets and growth stocks. (2) Whether the BOJ signals more clearly whether its next move comes in October or gets pushed to December — comments from officials and incoming data will be worth watching. (3) Whether the gap between the Nikkei and TOPIX narrows once the SoftBank-led rally in AI-related heavyweights cools off, or whether it widens further. It’s worth watching market breadth (the number of advancing versus declining stocks), not just the headline index levels.

Let’s keep at it, slow and steady. See you tomorrow!

* This article is for informational purposes only and does not recommend any specific investment. Please make investment decisions at your own responsibility.

For the previous session, see the September 17 daily recap (Japanese).

日本語版はこちら → https://hirokichiiii.com/投資のいろは/nikkei-daily-2026-09-24/

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