Hey everyone, Hirokichi here. On July 27, Tokyo stocks rebounded, with the Nikkei 225 closing up 320.04 yen (+0.50%) at 64,931.19. Easing Middle East tensions pushed oil prices lower and lifted a broad range of shares. Meanwhile, the yen stayed in the upper-163 range against the dollar, its weakest level in roughly 39 and a half years. Tonight, two of the market’s biggest events kick off: the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed’s policy-setting meeting) and the start of Big Tech earnings season. Let’s dig into what happened and what’s ahead.
(1) Japan’s Market Today: Nikkei Rebounds 320 Yen to 64,931
On July 27, the Nikkei 225 closed up 320.04 yen (0.50%) at 64,931.19. Right after the open, it briefly jumped more than 600 yen, touching an intraday high of 65,220.69 at 9:01 a.m. The TOPIX (Tokyo Stock Price Index) also rose sharply, up 49.66 points (1.24%) to 4,060.97.
- Nikkei 225: 64,931.19 (+320.04, +0.50%)
- TOPIX: 4,060.97 (+49.66, +1.24%)
- Advancers 194 / decliners 31 (Nikkei 225 components)
What caught my eye was the Middle East angle. Expectations that the exchange of attacks between the US and Iran would pause sent oil prices lower, and that receding geopolitical risk brought buyers back into a wide range of stocks (sources: Nikkei, Kabutan).
(2) Why Chip Stocks Stayed Under Pressure
That said, AI and semiconductor heavyweights, which carry a lot of weight in the Nikkei, stayed under pressure. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX), which tracks major US chip stocks, dropped more than 4% the previous Friday (July 24), and that weighed on sentiment, prompting profit-taking in Tokyo’s chip names too.
Among the 33 sector indexes, air transport, other products, and transport equipment led gains, while nonferrous metals, mining, and chemicals lagged. Fast Retailing and Recruit Holdings were the two biggest contributors, together adding roughly 138 yen to the index (sources: Minkabu, Fisco).
(3) The Yen Trades in the Upper-163s, Weakest in Almost 39 Years
In the currency market, the yen’s slide against the dollar continued. In New York trading on July 27, USD/JPY moved between 163.60 and 163.80, closing at 163.74. The dollar briefly softened on lower oil prices and falling long-term US yields, but persistent expectations of a rate hike (raising the policy interest rate further) before year-end, ahead of the FOMC, tipped things back toward dollar buying.
This week brings the FOMC (July 28-29) in the first half and the Bank of Japan’s policy meeting (July 30-31) in the second half, and markets are increasingly on alert for possible yen-buying intervention by Japanese authorities (sources: Zaikei Shimbun, Gaitame.com).
(4) Tonight’s US Outlook: FOMC Begins and Big Tech Earnings Super Week
Tonight kicks off a stretch packed with major market events. The FOMC’s two-day meeting begins on the 28th, with the decision and Fed Chair Warsh’s press conference set for the 29th (early morning of the 30th in Japan time). Markets currently lean toward a hold this month, but some remain wary of further rate hikes later this year given inflation staying sticky on higher oil prices.
This week is also being called a “super week” for earnings: Boeing, Visa, Coca-Cola, and Ford report on the 28th; Meta, Microsoft, and P&G on the 29th; and Apple and Amazon on the 30th. The market’s focus seems to be less on the headline numbers and more on AI-related capital spending plans and free cash flow trends. On top of that, today brings US economic data including the Consumer Confidence Index (July, forecast 92.3) (sources: Zaikei Shimbun, TradingKey).
(5) Wrap-up
Easing Middle East risk brought some relief to Japanese stocks, but heavy semiconductor names and a weakening yen remain two things to watch. I think there’s a real chance the market moves a lot once the FOMC and earnings rush get going tonight. It’s shaping up to be a volatile week, so I’ll be keeping a close eye on news for the stocks I hold.
Last market recap: [Market Recap] Nikkei Rebounds 307 Yen to 66,422 as AI Chip Stocks Bounce Back – Tonight’s Focus: Earnings Rush and Middle East Tensions [2026/7/23]
Related article: [Explainer] Yen Hits 163 to the Dollar, Weakest in 39 Years – What It Means for Japanese Stocks
日本語版はこちら→日経平均320円高の64,931円で反発！中東リスク後退も半導体は重し 今夜からFOMC開幕とビッグテック決算ウィーク【2026/7/28】
* This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Please invest at your own responsibility.
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