[Weekly Stock Picks] Toho (9602) Jumps as “Chiikawa” Hits Theaters & Intel (INTC) Surges 9% on AI-Driven Earnings – One Stock Each From Japan and the U.S.

Hey everyone, Hirokichi here. This week’s Weekly Stock Picks feature Toho (9602) from the Japanese market and Intel (INTC) from the U.S. market. One is riding a wave of back-to-back movie hits, and the other just posted its fastest revenue growth in 15 years on booming AI demand, sending its stock surging after earnings. Let’s dig into what’s driving each stock, how the share prices have moved, and what to watch as an investor.

Toho (9602): After “Detective Conan” and “Kokuho,” “Chiikawa” Hits Theaters Today

Toho is Japan’s largest film distributor. It operates the TOHO Cinemas chain and also runs an IP and animation business built around characters like Godzilla. Lately, one Toho-distributed film after another has become a box office hit, and the market has taken notice.

Recently, “Detective Conan: Angel of the Highway” and “Kokuho (National Treasure)” both became mega-hits, and on July 22 the newest “Demon Slayer” theatrical release reportedly got off to a strong start as well. Then today, July 24, a movie based on the popular character “Chiikawa” opened in theaters, with some estimates putting its three-day box office take at around 3.0 billion yen. The stock has been trending higher over the past several sessions as the market prices in expectations for this lineup of hits.

Checking Toho’s Earnings: A Headline Profit Decline That’s Actually Good News Underneath

Toho’s Q1 FY2/27 results (March-May 2026), released July 15, showed operating revenue of ¥88.74 billion (up 4.6% year over year), operating profit of ¥13.87 billion (down 28.3%), and net income of ¥8.20 billion (down 29.1%). At first glance that looks like a steep profit drop, but it’s mainly an accounting effect (a temporary distortion caused by a change in how results are recorded) rather than a real business slowdown. A March corporate split that moved Toho’s overseas operations into a new entity, TOHO Global, caused some overseas revenue recognition to shift into the next quarter. The company says that on a like-for-like basis, both revenue and profit actually grew. The market seems to agree – the stock jumped the day after the earnings release.

By segment, the film business posted operating revenue of ¥43.38 billion (up 7.7%) and operating profit of ¥9.60 billion (up 6.1%) – clearly strong. The IP and animation segment looked much weaker on paper, with operating revenue of ¥18.26 billion (down 3.9%) and operating profit of just ¥0.52 billion (down 91.8%), but again, that’s mostly the accounting timing issue. Areas like games, theater merchandise, and Godzilla’s overseas merchandising royalties are said to remain solid.

As the chart shows, the film business is what’s really driving Toho’s growth, and the IP/animation segment isn’t nearly as weak as the headline numbers suggest. Full-year guidance was left unchanged at operating revenue of ¥345.0 billion (down 4.3% from the prior year) and operating profit of ¥62.0 billion (down 8.7%), with management aiming to build on that as summer releases roll out (Source: Toho Co., Ltd. Q1 FY2/27 earnings summary).

The stock traded around ¥1,397.5 as of July 23 (up ¥52.5, or 3.90%, on the day; Source: Kabutan). Looking at the year’s range, shares fell from an April high of ¥1,752 to a May low of ¥1,191 before climbing back on the strength of the hit films and the market’s positive read on earnings. On top of that, Toho has laid out a plan to reduce its cross-shareholdings (equity stakes held in other companies for business relationship purposes) by more than ¥50 billion by the end of FY2/30, with proceeds partly earmarked for shareholder returns – a notable shift in capital policy.

From an investor’s standpoint, the upside is clear: the core film business is firing on all cylinders with hit after hit, and the move to trim cross-shareholdings signals a stronger focus on shareholder returns. On the downside, corporate restructuring like this quarter’s TOHO Global split can keep making the headline numbers harder to read for a while, and since the film business is inherently hit-driven, results can swing significantly whenever the hits dry up.

Intel (INTC): Fastest Revenue Growth in 15 Years on AI Demand, Stock Jumps After Earnings

Intel is the veteran chipmaker best known for PC CPUs (central processing units, the “brain” of a computer). In recent years it had fallen behind rivals like Nvidia in AI chips and struggled as a result – but this quarter’s earnings suggest that tide may be turning.

Intel’s Q2 2026 results, released July 23, showed revenue of $16.1 billion, up 25% year over year – its fastest revenue growth rate in more than 15 years. That easily beat Wall Street’s forecast of $14.42 billion in revenue and $0.21 in adjusted EPS (earnings per share); actual adjusted EPS came in at $0.42, nearly double the estimate (Sources: CNBC, Bloomberg, The New York Times, and other outlets).

By segment, CCG (Client Computing Group, the PC business) brought in $8.9 billion (up 13%), DCAI (Data Center and AI) brought in $6.3 billion (up 59%), and the Intel Foundry contract-manufacturing business brought in $5.8 billion (up 31%) – growth across the board. DCAI’s jump stands out in particular, underscoring how surging demand for AI data centers is now a real driver of Intel’s results.

The chart shows growth wasn’t limited to PCs – data center/AI and foundry both expanded solidly too. Intel’s CFO said on the earnings call that given strong customer demand signals, the company is raising its 2026 capital expenditure outlook from about $18 billion to more than $20 billion, with FY2027 capex expected to rise meaningfully further.

Intel’s Stock Price and What Investors Should Watch

On earnings day, July 23, broad tech-sector selling – tied to concerns over Alphabet’s and Tesla’s rising capital spending – weighed on Intel’s regular-session close, which finished at $100.23 (down 2.33% on the day). But once the strong results hit the tape, the stock jumped in after-hours trading, briefly topping $109 (roughly a 9% pop from the regular close) and reportedly touching the $110 range at one point (Sources: TipRanks, Invezz, Bloomberg).

From an investor’s standpoint, the upside is that the numbers now clearly back up Intel’s AI and data-center push, offering real evidence of a turnaround after years of struggle. On the downside, most analysts still rate the stock a “Hold,” the company remains in the red on a full-year net income basis, and the ramp-up in capital spending could weigh on cash flow for some time to come.

This Week’s Key Takeaways

Three things stand out from this week’s picks. (1) Toho’s headline profit decline is mostly a one-time accounting effect, and the underlying film business is actually performing well. (2) Intel appears to be successfully capturing AI data-center demand, which could mark a turning point after a long slump. (3) For both stocks, it pays to look past the headline share-price move and check what’s actually inside the earnings – whether a decline is an accounting quirk, and which segments are truly driving growth. I’ll be keeping an eye on Toho’s box office trends and whether Intel’s rally has legs in the weeks ahead.

There’s plenty going on in the markets this week to keep us on our toes. Let’s keep at it, slow and steady. See you next time!

日本語版はこちら →【今週の注目株】東宝(9602)は『ちいかわ』公開で急伸＆インテル(INTC)はAI決算で9%高！日米2銘柄を深掘り

* This article is for informational purposes only and does not recommend any specific investment. Please make investment decisions at your own responsibility.

In last week’s Weekly Stock Picks, I covered Fujikura (5803) and Netflix (NFLX) – check that out here too: [Weekly Stock Picks] Fujikura (5803) Rebounds on the AI Boom & Netflix (NFLX) Sinks After Earnings – One Stock Each From Japan and the U.S.. For more on the AI/data-center demand behind Intel’s results, see [Explainer] Why Data Centers Are the Beating Heart of the AI Era — 8 Notable Japanese and U.S. Stocks to Watch.

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