[U.S. Market Recap] Oct 1: Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Edge Higher as 10-Year Yield Hits Its Highest Since 2002 – Accenture Soars 15.8%, Micron’s Record Quarter Barely Moves the Stock

Hey everyone, Hirokichi here. For the first post of October, let’s look back at Thursday, October 1 in the U.S. market.

The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite all finished the session with modest gains, but underneath that calm headline, the 10-year Treasury yield spiked to its highest level since 2002, and stocks briefly sold off hard before recovering. Earnings reactions were also wildly mixed for a handful of well-known names. Let’s go through it step by step.

Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all edge higher

First, the index numbers.

Looking at the percentages alone, it looks like a “nothing happened” kind of day. But that close-to-close snapshot hides a lot: all three indexes dropped sharply intraday as Treasury yields spiked, then clawed their way back to a small gain by the close (per CNBC, Yahoo Finance, and other sources). As the first trading day of October and the fourth quarter, it was a tightrope-walk kind of start.

What moved the market: the 10-year yield hits its highest level since 2002

The real main character of the day wasn’t stocks — it was the bond market. The 10-year Treasury yield briefly touched the mid-5.3% range intraday, its highest level since 2002. It closed up 4 basis points (bp — 1bp equals 0.01%) at 5.33%, while the 30-year yield rose to 5.67%, also its highest since July 2002 (per TheStreet). One report went as far as calling the pace of this rise “the worst quarter for bonds since 1994.”

No single clear catalyst explains the yield spike; commentary points to a mix of ongoing worries about U.S. fiscal deterioration and sticky inflation. European markets took the yield shock even harder than Wall Street, with London down 1.7%, Paris down 1.6%, and Frankfurt down 1% (per Yahoo Finance).

Economic data was broadly solid. Weekly initial jobless claims came in at 197,000, below the roughly 200,000 expected and marking a fourth straight weekly decline. September’s ISM Manufacturing PMI (a gauge of factory activity; above 50 means expansion) came in at 55.9, still in expansion territory, but the prices-paid component jumped to 77.9, a sign that input costs are rising for manufacturers (per Yahoo Finance). Resilient jobs data plus elevated yields made for an awkward combination for stocks.

The VIX, often called the “fear index,” was little changed at 16.35. Gold rose 0.52% to $4,208.60 an ounce, and WTI crude jumped 2.81% to $92.96 a barrel. The oil spike came after major Chinese refiners suspended October fuel exports, and rising Middle East tensions added a geopolitical risk premium (per Yahoo Finance).

The dollar strengthened against the yen. USD/JPY dipped as low as 157.23 during New York trading before rebounding to close at 158.25. Expectations of higher U.S. rates and dollar-buying flows pushed the pair higher, while wariness over possible currency intervention to curb a weak yen also brought in some yen buying, making for a choppy session (per Zaikei Shimbun).

Stocks in focus: earnings winners and losers, and the real story behind Corteva’s “83% crash”

Earnings season drove some dramatic single-stock moves this day. Here are five names worth a closer look (percentage changes are versus the prior close, based on closing-price data from stockanalysis.com).

Even among companies that beat earnings, the size of the stock reaction varied a lot, as this chart shows (Corteva is excluded from the comparison since its move was driven by a corporate spin-off, not earnings).

Accenture (ACN): +15.78%, its best day ever

IT consulting giant Accenture beat both revenue and EPS (earnings per share) estimates in its fiscal Q4 2026 results and posted a record $84.5 billion in full-year bookings. The stock closed up 15.78% at $212.30, which CNBC described as the company’s best trading day ever.

Investors had long been skeptical that AI (artificial intelligence) services were more buzz than actual revenue for consulting firms. This quarter’s numbers clearly showed AI-related bookings and revenue accelerating, and management also issued bullish fiscal 2027 guidance along with buyback and dividend plans. The combination convinced the market that AI monetization is finally becoming real, triggering a wave of buying.

Synopsys (SNPS): +12.78% on a $1 billion-plus AWS deal

Chip-design software maker Synopsys closed up 12.78% at $490.54 after announcing a multi-year, $1 billion-plus custom silicon IP (intellectual property) agreement with Amazon’s AWS (Amazon Web Services). As AI chips grow more complex to design, this deal reinforced confidence in demand for design-software providers, pushing investors to turn more bullish.

Micron Technology (MU): a record quarter, but only +3.03%

Memory-chip maker Micron posted fiscal Q4 2026 revenue of $54.23 billion (above the $50.45 billion estimate) and adjusted EPS of $33.42, both record beats. Full-year revenue hit $133.2 billion, up 256% year over year, and data-center SSD (solid-state drive) revenue was nearly 10 times the prior-year quarter.

Despite the blowout numbers, the stock gained only 3.03%. The reasons are fairly clear: Micron shares had already more than quintupled over the past year, so strong results were largely priced in. On top of that, guided fiscal Q1 2027 gross margin of about 86.25% came in below the 87% just reported, and capex guidance jumped to roughly $11.5 billion for the quarter, raising questions about how much longer this boom can last. It’s a textbook case of a great quarter failing to move a stock that already had sky-high expectations baked in.

Cognizant Technology Solutions (CTSH): +5.99% on an Accenture read-through

IT services firm Cognizant rose 5.99% — not on its own earnings, but as a read-through from Accenture’s blowout results. The move reflects hope that AI-driven IT spending recovery isn’t just an Accenture story but a sector-wide trend; peers like IBM and Wipro reportedly got a similar lift.

Corteva (CTVA): down 83.81%, but it’s not a real crash

Agriculture giant Corteva fell a shocking 83.81%, but this wasn’t a business meltdown. It reflects the completion of the spin-off of its seed and genetics business into a newly independent company, Vylor, effective October 1. Shareholders of record as of September 24 automatically received Vylor shares alongside their continuing Corteva shares — the economic value was simply split across two tickers, not destroyed. The headline percentage looks alarming, but it’s really just an accounting artifact of the separation.

Sector and ETF moves

By sector, energy stocks rallied on the oil spike, while bank stocks lagged as Treasury yields jumped. The KBW Nasdaq Bank Index fell 0.7%, with Citigroup, PNC Financial, and Bank of America all down 1.4%–1.9% (per Yahoo Finance). Rising rates are usually seen as good for bank margins, but on this day, worries about the sheer speed of the yield move took priority. The small-cap Russell 2000 also lagged, down roughly 0.4%.

Among U.S. ETFs popular with Japanese retail investors, VOO (tracking the S&P 500) rose 0.21%, QQQ (tracking the Nasdaq-100) rose 0.31%, and DIA (tracking the Dow) was roughly flat at +0.01% — all in line with their underlying indexes (per closing-price data from stockanalysis.com). For dividend-focused ETFs like SPYD, HDV, and VYM, I wasn’t able to verify specific closing figures this time, so I’m leaving those numbers blank. Given the weakness in bank stocks, though, these financial-heavy dividend ETFs may have lagged the broader S&P 500 somewhat.

What to watch today

Three things stand out for today.

(1) The modest U.S. gains, combined with the yen weakening toward 158 per dollar, should offer some support for the Nikkei, especially exporter stocks. That said, elevated Treasury yields remain a risk to keep an eye on.

(2) Tonight (late night to early morning Japan time), the September U.S. jobs report is due. Consensus expects roughly 90,000 nonfarm payrolls added and a 4.1% unemployment rate (per Bloomberg) — an important data point for whether yields push even higher from here.

(3) After Thursday’s close (early morning Japan time tonight), Nike reported fiscal Q1 2027 earnings. EPS beat estimates, but revenue fell 4% year over year and missed expectations, and full-year profit guidance came in well below consensus, sending shares lower in after-hours trading (per StockTitan). Watch for how the stock reacts once regular trading resumes.

One more thing worth noting: over the past few weeks, the Nikkei has been rallying largely on its own even as the Dow struggled with high rates and growth worries, supported by money flowing into AI and semiconductor names plus speculative futures buying from overseas investors (per Zaikei Shimbun). Given how fast that rally has moved, it’s worth keeping in mind that it could reverse quickly if sentiment shifts.

Let’s keep at it, slow and steady. Have a good day!

* This article is for informational purposes only and does not recommend any specific investment. Please make investment decisions at your own responsibility.

For a look back at the previous session, here’s my recap of September 28 →[U.S. Market Recap] Sept 28: Nasdaq Falls 0.92% as Iran Tensions Flare and Long-Term Yields Hit a 19-Year High

日本語版はこちら →日本語版

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