[U.S. Market Recap] Sep 29: Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq All Slip as 10-Year Yield Hits Its Highest Since 2007 – FICO Craters 21% on an FHFA Bombshell

Hey everyone, Hirokichi here.

Today I’m recapping Tuesday, September 29 in the U.S. market. The short version: the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite all closed slightly lower. But the Dow was down more than 350 points at one point in the morning, so the fact that losses were trimmed that much by the close made it feel like a “market that held its ground” rather than a clean sell-off. The real story of the day wasn’t the indexes themselves – it was the sharp jump in long-term interest rates, and Fair Isaac (FICO), which got hit with a 21.6% one-day plunge on a single piece of regulatory news.

The three indexes: small losses, but Nasdaq held up best

Here’s how the three major indexes closed.

What this table shows is that the declines were small across the board, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was, by percentage, the most resilient of the three.

Early in the session the Dow fell more than 350 points as weak consumer confidence data and a sharp jump in long-term yields spooked investors. Losses were pared back into the close after some Fed officials reportedly signaled there was no rush to raise rates further, which eased some of the anxiety around rising rates. At the same time, other Fed officials were said to be voicing support for additional rate hikes – a split in tone within the Fed that seemed to define the day (sources: Minkabu FX “NY Markets,” OANDA Japan “NY Market Digest”).

What drove the market: long-term yields hit their highest since 2007

In my view, the bigger story on September 29 wasn’t the stock indexes at all – it was the move in the 10-year Treasury yield. The 10-year closed roughly flat at 5.23%, but it touched about 5.29% intraday, the highest level since June 2007 (source: Benzinga). That’s a jump of nearly half a percentage point in about a month, up from 4.76% at the end of August.

Behind the yield spike: the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index fell to 81.9 (versus a consensus estimate of 89.2), its lowest level in 12 years, and JOLTS job openings also came in soft (source: zaikei.co.jp). It might seem contradictory that yields rose on weak economic data, but reports pointed to comments from Fed officials supporting further rate hikes as the trigger.

A 5%-plus yield environment isn’t something equity investors can ignore. When you can earn over 5% just by holding Treasuries, dividend stocks and high-yield ETFs become relatively less attractive. If you hold ETFs like VYM, HDV or SPYD, this is a rate backdrop worth keeping an eye on for a while.

Separately, WTI crude fell to $89.38 a barrel (-$3.22, -3.48%) after news that Saudi Arabia had repaired a damaged pipeline and the U.S. announced a release of 40 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Reports of indirect U.S.-Iran contacts, raising hopes of easing tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, also weighed on oil (sources: TheStreet, OANDA Japan). Gold edged up to $4,179.70 an ounce (+$11.30, +0.27%), suggesting some demand for safe-haven assets persisted even as yields climbed.

Stocks in the spotlight: FICO craters 21% on an FHFA move

As the chart shows, Fair Isaac (FICO) was by far the day’s biggest loser, while Carnival (CCL) led the gainers.

Fair Isaac (FICO): -21.6% as FHFA moves to break its “monopoly”

The day’s biggest mover by far was Fair Isaac. Its flagship FICO Score has been used almost exclusively in U.S. mortgage underwriting for decades. But the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) announced it would consolidate Fannie Mae’s and Freddie Mac’s separate pricing grids into a single one that puts FICO’s score on equal footing with rival VantageScore. FHFA Director Bill Pulte reportedly called the old structure something that “makes zero sense” (source: Yahoo Finance).

Why did the stock fall so hard? The logic is straightforward: if lenders can now complete underwriting using VantageScore alone, FICO risks losing the per-pull fee revenue that has underpinned its business. Investors priced in that risk to its future earnings power all at once. FICO shares had already tumbled 8% after hours the night before (September 28), and the sell-off accelerated during Tuesday’s regular session.

Carnival (CCL): +11.65% as earnings beat expectations

Cruise operator Carnival jumped 11.65% after its fiscal Q3 results came in above Wall Street’s expectations. The results suggested travel and leisure spending is holding up, and investors rewarded a clear company-specific positive even as broader sentiment on consumers and rates stayed shaky.

Meta Platforms (META): +3.23% on optimism around its “Muse” AI agent

Meta rose 3.23% after Monness Crespi & Hardt raised its price target from $730 to $830. The catalyst was Meta’s expansion of its AI agent “Muse” to small businesses and the rollout of a new Meta Enterprise Platform. Analysts noted that Meta’s massive distribution across Facebook, Instagram, Messenger and WhatsApp could drive rapid adoption, and flagged potential new revenue streams from subscriptions, commerce fees and commercial AI licensing (source: MarketBeat).

Apple (AAPL): -2.65% on leadership uncertainty and the Muse threat

Apple fell $9, or 2.65%. The reported drivers were uncertainty around new CEO John Ternus’s organizational overhaul – including plans to reduce management layers between engineers and senior leadership – plus speculation about changes to Apple’s traditional product-launch calendar. On top of that, Bank of America warned that as AI agents like Meta’s Muse gain traction, Apple could keep selling hardware while losing out on app discovery, referrals and transaction-initiation activity that has historically flowed through its own ecosystem (source: Invezz). What struck me most is that Meta’s rally and Apple’s decline were really two sides of the same “AI agent” story.

Equifax (EFX): -2.65% as FICO’s shock rippled outward

Credit bureau Equifax also fell 2.65%. The immediate trigger was a price target cut from Goldman Sachs, but the backdrop looked similar to FICO’s: concern about the future of credit-scoring-adjacent businesses more broadly.

I wasn’t able to confirm same-day moves for popular high-dividend ETFs like VYM, HDV or SPYD from the sources I checked, so I’m leaving that out rather than guessing. Given yields pushing into the 5% range, though, it’s reasonable to think dividend-focused funds faced some relative selling pressure.

Sectors and ETFs: tech has led all September

I couldn’t verify sector-by-sector performance for this single day, but on a month-to-date basis for September, technology has been the strongest sector, up 4.4%, while financials, REITs, consumer discretionary and materials are each down more than 6% for the month. Healthcare has been roughly flat (source: Investrade “Market Review”). The fact that the Nasdaq Composite fell less than the Dow on September 29 fits with that same “tech leadership” pattern continuing.

What I’m watching today

U.S. stocks closed mostly lower on the 29th, and with long-term yields spiking and the FICO story dominating headlines, it wouldn’t be surprising to see a cautious tone carry over into Tokyo trading. Here’s what I’m watching:

(1) The path of long-term U.S. yields: with the 10-year near 5.2%, rate-sensitive names – high-dividend stocks, REITs, real estate – could keep feeling pressure.
(2) Tonight’s U.S. economic data: on September 30 U.S. time, we get the PCE price index (the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge), personal income and spending, the ADP employment report, the revised Q2 GDP figure, and the Chicago PMI (sources: Jiji Press, zaikei.co.jp). The PCE print in particular matters a lot for the inflation outlook.
(3) Whether the FICO shock spreads to other credit-data companies.

I wasn’t able to confirm specific opening figures for the Tokyo market at the time of writing, so I’ve deliberately left that out rather than guessing – please check the latest news for how Tokyo actually opened.

Let’s keep at it, slow and steady. Have a good day!

日本語版はこちら → https://hirokichiiii.com/投資のいろは/us-market-2026-09-29/

* This article is for informational purposes only and does not recommend any specific investment. Please make investment decisions at your own responsibility.

Thanks for reading! If you enjoyed this post, a quick click on the banners below would really encourage me.