[Nikkei Recap] Oct 2, 2026: Nikkei 225 Falls 647 Points to 68,309 as Profit-Taking and a SoftBank Group Plunge Weigh

Hey everyone, Hirokichi here.

Tokyo stocks pulled back today (October 2, 2026), with the Nikkei 225 closing down 647 points at 68,309. After gaining nearly 3,500 points over the previous two sessions, the market saw profit-taking kick in, and lingering concerns over the Middle East kept a lid on gains. On the bright side, semiconductor test equipment maker Advantest kept climbing and helped cushion the index. Let’s look at today’s moves and the stocks that caught the spotlight.

How the indexes moved today

*TOPIX and the Growth 250 index aren’t showing confirmed closing figures yet from data providers at the time of writing (around 4pm JST), so I’ve left those as “pending.” The USD/JPY level is also not confirmed for exactly 4pm, so I’ve only noted the general direction (source: OANDA).

The chart above shows the Nikkei’s last five trading days. After bottoming out on September 29, the index rose for three straight sessions and briefly approached 69,000 on October 1, so today’s pullback looks like a natural pause after that run. Among the 225 Nikkei constituents, only 36 stocks rose while 187 fell, which tells us the selling was broader under the surface than the index-level move alone suggests (source: Zaikei). Still, nothing about today felt like a panic — more like the market catching its breath.

What moved the market

Three things drove today’s pullback.

(1) Profit-taking after the recent rally. The Nikkei had climbed nearly 3,500 points between September 30 and October 1, which made short-term profit-taking and selling into strength more likely today (source: Zaikei).

(2) Renewed Middle East concerns. Ceasefire talks between the U.S. and Iran remain stalled, with President Trump reportedly saying he doesn’t think peace is achievable, raising the risk of renewed military tension. That pushed oil prices higher and weighed on investor sentiment (source: Zaikei).

(3) A cautious mood ahead of tonight’s U.S. jobs report. With both domestic and U.S. long-term interest rates staying elevated, many investors held back from aggressive trading ahead of the U.S. employment report (unemployment rate and nonfarm payrolls), due at 9:30pm JST, which could sway the Fed’s next move (source: OANDA).

On the other hand, buying in non-ferrous metals, mining, and oil-related shares — all benefiting from higher resource prices — helped limit the overall decline.

Today’s featured stocks and why they moved

As the table and chart above show, today was a tale of two extremes: semiconductor-related Advantest kept climbing on its own, while SoftBank Group — one of the index’s most influential names — tumbled. Kusuri no Aoki HD and Prap Japan don’t have confirmed closing figures yet at the time of writing, so I’ve marked them “pending,” but both were quoted at their daily limit-up (buy-only) price during the morning session.

Advantest (6857): AI chip demand keeps the momentum going

Advantest, the world’s leading maker of semiconductor test equipment, rose again today, closing at 38,840 yen (+3.27%) after a big gain the day before. The trigger was Micron Technology’s earnings report, which showed rapidly expanding demand for HBM (high-bandwidth memory, the high-performance memory used in AI chips) driven by AI infrastructure spending. Since Advantest makes the equipment that verifies HBM and other semiconductor chips function properly before shipment, investors quickly revised the company’s earnings outlook upward. Today also brought reports that Taiwan’s TSMC is planning additional investment in Japan, which further boosted confidence in the domestic semiconductor supply chain. Advantest alone added about 373 points to the Nikkei, the single biggest positive contributor today (source: Zaikei).

SoftBank Group (9984): good news priced in, new concerns pile up

On the other side, SoftBank Group was today’s biggest loser, falling to 6,252 yen (-6.70%) and single-handedly dragging the Nikkei down by about 299 points — the largest negative contribution of the day. Part of the reason was that the company’s massive $30 billion investment program in OpenAI was completed on October 1, with the final $10 billion tranche executed. Rather than being celebrated, the completion of such a huge, already-anticipated deal triggered “sell the news” selling. On top of that, the company’s CDS spread (credit default swap, a gauge of perceived credit risk) rose to its highest level since 2023, reflecting bond market concern over the leveraged strategy behind its aggressive AI investments. News that a former CFO at a subsidiary was arrested on October 1 over an embezzlement of 170 million yen also weighed on sentiment.

Kusuri no Aoki HD (3549) and Prap Japan (2449): limit-up on positive surprises

Drugstore chain operator Kusuri no Aoki HD had already been posting strong results, with operating profit up 16% for the June-August quarter and same-store sales continuing to grow in September. Today it added a fresh surprise: a newly announced “50th anniversary vision,” a special dividend to mark its 40th year since founding, and a share buyback. The combination of strong earnings and stronger shareholder returns sent the stock to a limit-up bid of 4,394 yen (+18.4%) as of the morning session. PR firm Prap Japan announced a capital and business alliance with major U.S. PR firm Daniel J. Edelman, drawing buying on hopes for overseas expansion, and traded at a limit-up bid of 1,348 yen (+28.6%) as of the morning session close. Both stocks’ final closing prices weren’t confirmed at the time of writing, and I’ll update them with the actual closes before this goes live.

How I’m thinking about this as an individual investor

A pullback the day after a big rally is, in my view, a sign of a healthy market taking a breath rather than something to worry about. If you’re dollar-cost averaging, the best move is usually to keep contributing steadily without overreacting to a single day’s swing. For shorter-term traders, today was a good reminder to tell the difference between a stock like Advantest, which keeps getting bought on genuine earnings momentum, and one like SoftBank Group, where already-priced-in good news can trigger profit-taking. Either way, with the Middle East situation and tonight’s U.S. jobs report still ahead, I’d avoid taking on oversized positions right now.

What to watch next

(1) Tonight’s U.S. September jobs report, due at 9:30pm JST. The unemployment rate and nonfarm payrolls figures could meaningfully shift expectations for the Fed’s next move.

(2) The situation in the Middle East (Iran). With ceasefire talks stalled, whether tensions escalate again will matter a lot for oil prices and global risk appetite.

(3) More earnings-driven stock picking as the season heats up. We may see more surprise movers like Kusuri no Aoki HD, where strong results and new shareholder-return announcements land together.

Let’s keep at it, slow and steady. See you after the weekend!

* This article is for informational purposes only and does not recommend any specific investment. Please make investment decisions at your own responsibility.

For yesterday’s session, check out this article too: [Nikkei Recap] Sep 30, 2026: Nikkei 225 Surges 1,272 Points to 66,753 as Oil Falls and AI and Chip Stocks Rebound

日本語版はこちら → 【日経平均まとめ】2026年10月2日は647円安の68,309円！利益確定売りと中東情勢への警戒で反落

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